
Building the First Federally (CFTC) Regulated Exchange Dedicated to Trading on Events
Tarek Mansour, MIT alumnus and founder of the prediction market exchange Kalshi, speaks to MIT's 18.642 class on building a federally regulated exchange for trading on event outcomes. He traces his path from Wall Street trading desks to founding Kalshi, describing the regulatory process of getting the CFTC to approve a new category of financial product and the obstacles that process created. Mansour discusses why prediction markets matter as a mechanism for pricing uncertainty about real-world events, how exchange infrastructure differs from traditional derivatives markets, and what it took to convince regulators and investors that trading on elections, weather, or economic data deserved a legitimate marketplace. The talk mixes entrepreneurial narrative with concrete detail on market design and regulatory strategy, aimed at students studying the mathematics and mechanics of modern financial markets.