
The Midas Formula: Trillion Dollar Bet
Myron Scholes and Robert Merton built a formula that seemed to remove risk from investing: a mathematical model for pricing options that let traders put a precise number on uncertainty itself. The film traces how the Black-Scholes-Merton equation moved from an academic paper into the trading floors of Wall Street, and how its creators, along with bond trader John Meriwether, used it as the engine behind Long-Term Capital Management, a hedge fund that leveraged billions on the assumption that markets behave the way the math predicted. Interviews with economists, traders, and journalists reconstruct the fund's rise, its Nobel Prize-winning pedigree, and the 1998 collapse that nearly took the global financial system with it when Russia defaulted and the models stopped matching reality. Archival trading floor footage and news clips from the crisis sit alongside plain explanations of how the formula actually works. The film's real subject is the gap between a beautiful equation and the market it claims to describe, and what happens when everyone believes the gap has closed.